***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 4.5 4.9 4.6 1.4 79.9 74.6 2.7 3.5 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 4.2 4.5 4.3 1.3 79.1 73.7 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 6.6 7.0 4.6 1.3 79.9 75.4 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 0.7 1.1 2.0 1.3 78.2 74.4 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 3.1 3.5 2.4 1.3 78.6 74.6 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 2.3 2.6 0.0 1.3 77.6 73.9 0.8 1.4 2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 4.3 4.6 4.3 1.3 78.8 73.8 2.8 3.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -2.5 -2.3 -0.2 1.2 74.3 70.4 -4.6 -3.7 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 4.2 4.6 2.6 1.4 80.5 76.2 2.7 3.3 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 4.1 4.2 0.7 1.1 74.9 71.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 3.8 4.1 1.7 1.3 78.0 73.9 2.4 3.0 3.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 2.6 2.9 0.8 1.3 77.5 73.6 1.0 1.7 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 3.4 3.5 0.5 1.2 75.2 71.5 2.0 2.6 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 4.6 4.7 2.3 1.1 75.8 72.2 3.3 3.8 4.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 4.4 4.8 3.3 1.5 83.0 79.2 2.9 3.5 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 4.5 4.8 1.1 1.3 77.4 73.5 3.0 3.6 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.6 4.1 1.2 77.1 72.2 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 1.8 1.9 0.1 1.1 74.1 70.6 0.6 1.2 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 4.2 4.6 4.3 1.2 79.3 74.1 2.6 3.3 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 0.9 68.7 65.4 -2.1 -1.4 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 4.0 4.4 3.9 1.4 80.1 75.7 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 3.6 3.9 4.0 1.1 76.7 72.2 2.3 2.9 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 3.8 4.2 4.0 1.2 79.6 74.9 2.2 2.9 3.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 3.9 4.2 2.2 1.2 77.4 73.7 2.6 3.2 3.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 4.1 4.6 3.6 1.5 79.7 74.8 2.4 3.2 3.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 3.4 3.6 0.2 1.3 76.7 73.0 1.9 2.5 3.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 4.7 5.2 4.2 1.5 79.7 74.5 2.8 3.6 4.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 2.6 2.9 2.3 1.3 79.1 75.6 1.1 1.7 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 1.4 1.5 -0.8 1.1 73.0 69.4 -0.4 0.4 1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 4.6 5.0 4.5 1.3 80.0 74.7 2.9 3.6 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------