***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.1 14.0 1.8 71.8 68.2 12.2 13.9 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.8 13.9 1.8 72.0 68.7 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.2 14.0 1.6 68.2 65.0 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 6.8 8.6 11.0 1.6 67.6 64.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 15.0 16.1 12.1 1.3 64.6 61.7 12.5 14.4 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.6 14.6 9.7 1.1 62.2 59.5 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.7 14.0 2.0 73.9 70.3 11.8 13.4 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 3.0 3.8 9.9 1.0 61.2 58.8 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.9 16.0 12.8 1.3 63.9 61.2 12.3 14.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.8 15.6 11.0 1.1 61.4 59.0 12.1 14.2 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.8 12.0 1.1 62.5 59.9 12.2 14.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.9 10.9 1.1 61.9 59.6 11.2 13.4 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.7 11.1 1.1 62.0 59.8 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 15.0 16.1 12.9 1.4 64.3 61.6 12.7 14.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.4 13.0 1.8 71.7 67.6 11.6 13.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.2 16.2 11.4 1.1 62.5 60.0 12.5 14.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.7 13.7 1.9 73.0 69.6 11.2 12.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.3 15.0 10.4 1.0 60.4 58.1 11.7 13.7 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.9 14.0 1.7 70.4 67.0 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.1 9.7 7.7 0.8 59.2 57.1 6.4 8.5 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.0 16.1 13.6 1.4 65.4 62.5 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.6 13.7 1.7 70.9 67.6 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 14.7 16.1 14.0 1.6 68.3 64.9 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 14.8 15.9 12.6 1.3 63.4 60.7 12.4 14.3 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.7 16.0 12.6 1.7 70.1 66.6 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.1 15.5 10.1 1.4 65.7 63.0 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.3 13.4 1.9 72.3 68.6 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 14.8 16.4 11.7 1.5 66.9 63.3 11.9 14.1 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 9.4 10.1 9.6 1.0 60.3 58.2 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.8 14.0 1.8 72.0 68.5 12.0 13.6 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------