***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.9 14.9 1.4 67.6 61.8 13.4 15.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.9 14.6 1.3 66.5 61.0 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.1 15.0 1.3 65.6 60.5 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 9.2 12.8 1.4 66.9 62.1 5.9 7.6 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.3 13.4 1.4 65.7 61.1 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.1 11.4 1.4 64.6 60.3 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.7 14.6 1.4 67.7 61.8 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.9 11.7 1.3 64.2 60.1 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.9 13.8 1.4 65.4 60.6 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.2 17.0 12.6 1.4 64.6 60.3 13.9 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.2 17.1 13.2 1.4 65.2 60.9 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.3 12.7 1.3 64.8 60.6 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.3 12.0 1.3 64.9 60.8 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.2 13.6 1.2 63.4 59.5 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 16.7 16.8 13.6 1.5 68.1 63.2 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.6 12.7 1.4 65.5 61.2 14.3 16.1 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.8 14.4 1.2 65.5 59.9 13.2 14.6 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.6 12.2 1.3 64.0 59.7 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.8 14.7 1.2 65.7 60.5 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.4 9.3 1.2 63.6 59.1 8.6 10.2 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.1 14.5 1.3 65.6 60.6 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.7 14.3 1.1 64.1 58.9 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.1 14.8 1.2 64.8 60.0 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.1 13.6 1.3 63.9 59.7 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.9 13.4 1.4 67.6 62.0 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.0 11.9 1.6 68.3 63.2 13.7 15.3 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 17.2 14.2 1.5 68.4 62.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.9 13.0 1.4 66.6 62.1 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.5 11.2 1.3 63.9 59.7 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.8 14.7 1.3 67.1 61.5 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------