***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.7 16.1 14.2 1.3 74.9 70.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.6 16.0 14.1 1.3 74.7 70.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.3 14.4 1.2 72.2 68.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.5 11.5 1.1 70.0 66.6 5.9 7.1 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.4 12.6 1.1 69.7 66.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 15.1 15.2 10.5 1.2 69.0 64.9 12.8 13.9 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.8 14.1 1.4 76.7 71.7 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.2 10.7 1.0 66.1 62.9 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 15.9 16.1 13.2 1.1 69.6 65.7 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.9 11.7 1.0 66.7 63.4 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 16.0 16.2 12.6 1.1 68.8 65.2 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 14.5 15.4 11.7 1.1 68.2 64.6 13.0 14.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.4 11.7 1.2 69.7 65.5 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.3 13.2 1.1 69.7 65.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.1 13.0 1.3 73.4 69.7 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.8 12.1 1.2 70.2 66.1 14.3 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.0 13.8 1.3 74.7 70.2 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.5 11.2 1.0 66.3 62.9 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.9 14.2 1.2 73.4 69.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.4 8.4 0.8 63.5 60.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.2 14.0 1.1 70.4 66.4 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.8 13.8 1.2 72.8 68.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.2 14.2 1.2 72.2 68.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.1 13.1 1.1 69.2 65.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 12.9 1.3 73.6 69.3 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 15.7 16.0 10.9 1.3 72.4 67.7 13.3 14.5 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.3 13.7 1.4 76.1 71.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 12.1 1.2 70.1 66.7 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.6 10.3 1.0 66.4 62.9 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.9 14.2 1.3 75.1 70.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------