***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.1 6.0 60.7 43.6 35.8 1.7 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 3.3 5.5 66.6 47.9 38.2 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.0 5.9 58.6 43.2 36.0 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.5 8.4 67.0 48.2 40.9 4.3 6.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.7 6.8 55.3 40.5 35.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.4 7.0 57.4 39.5 35.2 2.6 5.1 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.3 5.1 62.6 46.0 37.0 1.3 2.6 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 10.6 8.8 61.6 43.1 37.5 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 5.1 6.9 58.8 43.1 37.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.2 8.3 57.0 40.4 35.6 4.8 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.3 7.1 56.1 41.1 36.1 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.3 7.8 64.1 45.5 39.4 4.2 7.1 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.9 7.6 59.5 42.0 36.8 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.6 7.5 53.3 38.4 33.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.7 7.2 69.9 52.8 43.5 1.8 4.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.0 7.1 60.8 43.8 38.3 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.7 4.9 61.5 46.7 38.0 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.9 8.6 56.9 38.9 35.0 3.9 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.8 3.5 5.7 65.0 46.6 37.4 1.8 4.1 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.7 10.0 59.1 40.2 35.5 3.8 6.2 9.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.3 6.8 60.1 43.4 37.2 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.9 5.4 61.0 46.4 38.3 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.0 5.9 58.9 42.9 35.3 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.1 7.1 55.1 39.0 34.2 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.3 6.6 55.5 40.5 34.2 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 4.0 7.2 58.6 42.2 36.5 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.0 5.9 58.1 42.1 34.7 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.2 7.8 67.5 49.4 41.9 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 8.2 8.9 57.2 39.3 35.4 6.5 11.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.2 5.8 66.9 47.6 37.8 1.7 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------