***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.5 12.1 87.1 56.1 48.1 2.3 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.2 10.9 92.1 58.5 49.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.3 8.5 12.8 90.6 57.6 50.8 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.6 15.9 106.9 64.7 54.4 4.0 6.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.8 9.5 16.9 114.7 67.4 56.8 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.5 18.3 122.8 70.2 60.3 2.7 5.3 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.7 10.6 91.3 58.8 49.6 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.5 20.4 18.4 122.3 70.2 58.2 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.3 8.5 17.1 112.7 66.6 56.4 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.9 11.2 17.8 115.1 67.5 56.5 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 11.0 17.3 114.5 67.1 55.3 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.9 12.1 17.3 121.3 69.7 57.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.2 10.8 16.9 112.8 66.5 53.3 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.3 19.4 112.4 66.5 58.8 6.1 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.8 14.0 103.5 63.6 50.1 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 9.7 18.2 122.8 70.0 58.0 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.6 11.8 105.4 64.6 53.6 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.2 11.3 19.5 118.2 68.7 58.7 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.8 11.5 92.8 58.6 51.0 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.9 20.5 114.9 67.5 56.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.6 15.0 102.1 62.5 52.6 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.1 12.5 105.5 64.7 54.2 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.2 13.3 97.4 60.4 53.5 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.6 13.4 17.6 107.9 64.6 57.0 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.5 15.5 99.1 60.9 52.2 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.9 9.7 18.6 126.6 71.6 58.9 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.0 13.4 91.4 57.7 49.3 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.7 7.6 15.4 111.2 66.4 53.8 1.8 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 20.4 20.8 118.4 68.7 59.0 6.3 11.5 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.2 10.6 85.8 55.7 48.1 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------