***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.5 14.0 97.3 61.2 48.1 3.0 5.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.1 13.1 103.3 63.9 50.4 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.3 13.1 91.2 59.0 46.5 3.4 6.9 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.3 11.9 80.0 53.4 43.8 4.7 9.2 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.3 11.6 76.7 51.8 43.3 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.0 13.6 80.3 51.5 44.6 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.0 13.0 105.4 64.8 50.7 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.9 11.9 13.3 81.8 51.9 44.9 6.1 11.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 6.6 12.5 77.8 52.1 43.8 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.8 7.8 13.6 78.4 50.6 43.4 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.0 7.3 11.0 75.3 50.4 42.7 3.5 7.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.0 11.3 76.8 50.2 43.7 3.4 7.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.9 8.3 12.2 74.3 49.1 43.1 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.8 16.3 87.4 56.6 46.8 4.5 8.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.1 10.9 78.8 54.4 43.3 3.4 8.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.8 11.3 74.4 49.8 43.0 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.5 12.7 104.8 64.6 50.1 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.2 15.4 83.3 52.8 45.5 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.0 13.2 99.4 62.4 49.5 2.1 4.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 18.0 91.9 57.2 49.3 3.9 7.1 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.6 12.0 80.4 54.1 43.5 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.2 13.5 104.8 64.4 50.2 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.1 13.5 93.6 60.2 48.1 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.7 14.5 84.2 54.5 45.3 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.0 14.0 89.1 57.5 46.7 5.2 8.9 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.0 13.1 84.2 54.0 46.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.8 14.6 98.0 61.4 49.1 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.5 8.7 11.2 77.4 52.7 43.2 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 10.8 16.7 87.3 54.9 47.4 4.4 9.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.0 13.3 100.7 62.8 49.3 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------