***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.7 13.6 96.5 60.8 52.9 2.6 5.2 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.9 13.9 111.9 66.8 55.0 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.6 8.6 13.4 97.0 61.0 53.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.9 12.1 16.4 103.7 63.3 55.3 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.6 15.0 95.9 59.9 52.4 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.3 16.7 95.3 58.4 50.2 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.5 14.3 116.4 68.3 55.4 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.4 15.8 94.4 58.7 50.9 5.5 10.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.2 14.6 90.3 57.5 50.7 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.7 16.0 90.9 57.0 49.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.0 9.0 14.5 96.0 60.2 52.0 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.1 14.7 97.7 60.7 52.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.0 16.7 98.0 60.5 51.5 3.1 5.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.9 17.0 94.1 58.6 49.8 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.2 15.8 110.6 66.5 56.5 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.0 15.6 98.3 60.9 52.4 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.1 15.3 125.4 71.3 57.1 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 8.4 8.4 16.8 90.8 56.4 49.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.4 13.7 106.0 64.6 54.5 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.3 20.0 98.8 59.9 52.0 3.9 7.0 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.8 13.6 92.2 58.9 51.9 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.1 15.4 117.3 68.7 56.1 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.1 13.8 99.3 61.9 53.2 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.5 15.7 95.1 59.1 51.1 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.8 15.6 98.7 61.4 54.2 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.1 16.6 101.2 62.2 52.6 2.8 5.3 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.4 14.6 99.1 61.7 53.5 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.1 7.6 16.1 106.1 64.3 55.7 2.8 5.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.5 13.1 18.0 95.2 58.3 50.6 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.1 13.5 105.2 64.5 54.2 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------