***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.0 23.1 45.6 87.5 46.8 43.9 16.3 25.0 35.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.3 27.7 43.4 96.1 54.1 48.3 16.9 25.3 35.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 41.4 32.9 45.2 86.4 45.8 42.8 25.2 35.7 47.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 45.9 41.2 52.5 90.6 48.6 45.4 33.8 42.0 50.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 42.6 35.3 50.3 87.1 45.2 42.7 28.8 37.9 48.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 38.1 31.6 55.5 90.3 45.8 44.8 25.4 33.9 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 28.2 26.0 43.0 97.0 55.0 49.3 15.8 23.4 32.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 67.0 59.0 56.3 90.3 47.0 44.7 49.0 61.1 74.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 39.6 32.8 51.2 86.4 44.6 42.2 27.2 35.5 44.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 49.0 39.8 55.6 85.8 42.8 41.0 34.3 44.1 55.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 44.5 35.8 49.8 86.9 44.9 42.5 28.8 39.2 50.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 42.3 36.6 51.1 90.9 48.1 45.2 28.2 37.8 48.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 43.1 35.6 53.5 87.2 44.3 42.3 29.9 38.8 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 35.2 43.3 60.1 88.5 45.7 43.1 36.1 45.8 56.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 38.3 32.5 48.0 92.2 51.1 47.3 20.9 31.9 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 38.2 33.1 52.2 90.7 48.0 45.3 26.0 34.1 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.4 30.4 44.6 102.8 59.3 52.8 18.2 25.6 34.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 40.5 33.3 60.4 87.9 44.0 42.4 28.1 36.3 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.2 32.1 44.2 93.1 51.6 46.6 22.3 31.4 41.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 43.0 38.3 68.5 91.7 47.5 45.8 31.5 39.4 48.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 37.0 29.7 47.4 85.1 44.4 41.9 24.0 32.7 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 33.1 32.8 46.9 100.3 57.4 51.8 22.0 29.3 37.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 23.4 31.0 46.6 89.5 48.3 44.6 24.0 31.7 40.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 47.7 39.6 54.9 87.2 44.6 42.5 33.1 42.8 53.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 37.3 31.4 51.7 87.6 46.1 43.6 25.4 33.3 42.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 34.8 30.8 55.6 94.1 50.6 47.9 21.4 30.5 41.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 32.7 26.8 48.5 89.0 47.6 44.7 19.8 28.1 38.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 34.5 30.5 50.5 91.7 50.0 46.6 22.4 30.5 40.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 65.3 56.6 64.4 90.5 46.4 44.6 46.7 59.3 73.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.3 26.0 43.2 91.8 50.8 46.0 17.6 25.6 35.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------