***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.9 5.0 0.8 61.5 56.4 3.1 4.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.4 4.5 0.3 55.3 53.7 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.1 7.5 5.0 1.0 66.1 60.3 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 2.1 1.7 2.5 0.9 65.2 60.0 -0.7 0.5 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.4 2.8 1.2 68.8 62.8 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.1 0.5 0.9 64.0 61.9 1.2 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.6 4.5 0.5 57.1 54.5 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -1.9 0.7 1.0 63.4 61.7 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 5.3 5.0 3.1 1.0 64.4 60.7 3.0 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.1 1.5 1.0 64.6 62.1 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.8 2.1 1.0 65.3 61.6 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.0 3.0 1.5 0.6 59.5 58.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.6 0.8 0.4 57.1 57.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.4 5.1 2.8 0.5 58.7 57.1 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.6 3.5 1.3 72.4 65.0 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.2 1.6 0.7 61.4 59.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.7 4.4 0.4 55.5 54.1 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 3.0 2.7 1.0 1.1 65.2 62.8 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.5 4.5 0.4 57.0 55.0 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 0.8 0.1 -1.3 1.0 62.0 61.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.0 4.4 1.1 66.8 60.8 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.7 4.2 0.2 52.7 52.8 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 4.8 4.3 4.4 0.7 61.6 58.1 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.7 2.8 0.8 62.8 60.0 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.4 3.6 1.1 67.4 59.9 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 49.3 52.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.8 4.4 1.0 64.9 58.2 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 3.7 3.3 2.7 0.9 65.0 60.5 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 2.7 2.3 0.3 1.1 64.8 62.7 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.9 4.6 0.4 56.7 54.3 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------