***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.7 5.5 -0.1 48.1 48.3 4.6 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 5.1 -0.3 45.2 46.1 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.2 5.6 0.2 53.0 51.8 6.7 8.0 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.1 3.0 0.0 49.6 50.2 0.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.7 3.3 0.3 54.8 53.8 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.8 1.4 0.5 57.5 56.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.5 5.2 -0.2 46.6 47.1 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.5 1.3 0.1 52.1 52.3 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 3.6 0.0 50.2 50.3 4.3 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.4 2.1 0.1 51.4 51.6 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.2 2.7 0.2 52.7 52.6 4.0 5.1 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.6 2.1 -0.1 48.9 49.6 2.5 3.7 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.5 1.6 0.0 50.1 50.3 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 3.5 -0.2 47.5 48.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.5 4.1 0.5 58.6 56.9 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.8 2.2 0.1 51.1 51.5 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.6 5.1 -0.2 47.3 47.6 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.1 50.9 51.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 5.2 -0.2 46.7 47.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.0 0.5 -0.8 0.0 50.1 50.6 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.5 4.9 0.1 52.3 51.4 4.1 5.3 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.8 4.9 -0.3 44.4 45.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.0 5.0 0.0 50.9 50.3 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.3 3.3 -0.1 48.0 48.9 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.7 4.2 0.3 54.1 52.9 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.0 1.4 -0.3 45.0 46.5 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.4 5.0 0.1 52.2 51.3 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.9 3.2 0.0 50.5 51.1 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 51.5 51.9 1.3 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.7 5.3 -0.3 45.2 46.1 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------