***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 4.5 4.3 4.1 0.6 65.2 61.2 2.9 3.7 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.9 3.8 0.5 61.5 58.6 2.7 3.4 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.8 4.3 1.0 73.0 67.3 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 0.8 1.0 1.9 1.0 72.5 67.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 3.3 3.7 2.4 1.4 78.7 72.9 1.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 2.5 2.7 0.1 1.3 75.0 71.1 1.0 1.6 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.1 3.8 0.6 63.4 60.0 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -2.5 -2.4 0.1 1.0 70.4 67.1 -4.4 -3.5 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 4.3 4.4 2.6 1.0 72.9 68.6 2.9 3.5 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.3 1.0 1.0 71.6 67.9 2.9 3.5 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 4.0 4.3 1.9 1.3 78.1 73.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.9 68.4 65.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 3.5 3.6 0.8 1.1 72.1 68.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.6 2.4 0.8 68.4 64.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 4.5 5.0 3.2 1.5 83.2 76.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 4.7 4.8 1.3 1.1 74.1 70.0 3.2 3.8 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 3.7 0.5 62.6 59.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.1 0.5 1.2 73.0 68.8 0.8 1.3 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.0 3.8 0.5 63.4 60.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.5 -1.9 1.0 68.8 65.3 -1.9 -1.2 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.3 3.8 1.1 73.9 68.3 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.5 3.7 0.5 61.4 58.7 2.5 3.1 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 3.8 3.9 3.8 0.8 69.4 64.5 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.2 2.4 1.0 72.7 68.1 2.8 3.4 3.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.6 3.1 1.2 75.7 69.1 2.6 3.4 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 2.9 3.1 0.3 0.6 61.5 60.4 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.9 3.7 1.0 71.4 65.8 3.0 3.8 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 2.7 2.9 2.2 1.1 74.5 69.5 1.3 1.9 2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 1.5 1.7 -0.3 1.2 72.7 68.6 -0.2 0.6 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.3 3.9 0.5 62.6 59.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------