***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 12.4 12.6 10.9 0.5 56.3 55.5 10.1 12.0 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 12.5 12.7 11.0 0.5 55.8 54.9 10.4 12.1 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.8 10.8 0.3 53.8 53.2 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 4.7 4.0 7.7 -0.1 48.5 48.5 2.0 4.2 6.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 12.8 12.5 9.0 0.1 51.4 51.1 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.8 10.7 6.2 -0.5 44.9 45.2 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 12.2 12.4 10.9 0.5 56.2 55.2 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.9 0.3 6.4 -0.9 41.2 41.8 -0.7 1.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.3 10.0 0.1 50.6 50.5 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.8 11.4 7.6 -0.7 43.4 43.8 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 12.6 12.7 9.1 0.4 54.1 53.7 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.0 11.0 7.7 -0.4 46.0 46.2 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 12.6 12.8 8.6 0.3 53.5 53.2 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 13.2 12.7 9.7 -0.1 49.4 49.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 12.3 12.4 10.3 0.4 55.0 54.3 9.7 11.8 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 13.2 13.0 8.5 0.1 51.0 50.8 10.9 12.8 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.7 11.9 10.7 0.4 55.4 54.5 9.7 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 11.0 6.7 -0.9 41.1 41.8 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 12.6 12.7 11.0 0.4 54.9 54.1 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.8 4.2 -1.3 36.8 37.8 5.4 7.4 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 12.8 12.7 10.7 0.3 53.3 52.8 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.9 10.9 0.4 55.2 54.3 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 13.1 13.1 10.9 0.4 54.3 53.7 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 12.9 12.4 9.4 -0.1 49.1 49.0 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.6 9.8 0.6 56.7 55.9 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.5 11.6 6.9 -0.3 46.2 46.5 10.1 12.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 12.4 12.8 10.4 0.6 57.0 56.1 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.0 8.6 -0.1 48.7 48.6 9.9 12.2 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.2 6.0 -0.7 42.5 43.1 5.1 7.1 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 12.4 12.5 11.0 0.4 55.5 54.7 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------