***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.8 14.3 2.5 77.6 69.8 12.6 14.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.3 14.0 2.2 75.5 68.1 12.6 14.0 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.7 14.7 2.8 79.4 71.5 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 9.0 9.8 12.1 2.4 75.7 69.3 4.5 6.6 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 17.1 18.3 13.2 3.0 80.6 73.3 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 16.1 17.3 11.1 2.7 78.4 71.5 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.9 13.8 2.1 74.3 67.0 12.3 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 5.2 6.1 11.4 2.6 76.9 70.9 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 17.0 18.4 13.9 3.2 81.6 74.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 17.0 18.1 12.4 2.9 78.9 72.1 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 17.1 18.9 13.3 3.5 83.9 76.0 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 16.4 17.2 12.2 2.5 76.8 71.0 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 17.3 18.8 12.3 3.1 81.5 74.4 12.7 14.7 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.9 18.0 13.8 3.1 79.8 72.7 13.1 14.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 16.5 18.9 13.8 3.9 87.7 79.4 12.2 14.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 17.6 19.0 12.6 3.0 81.0 73.8 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.8 13.6 2.0 73.6 66.7 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.3 11.7 2.7 76.7 70.5 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.7 14.3 2.4 76.5 69.2 12.7 14.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.8 8.8 2.2 73.7 68.3 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 17.0 18.4 14.6 3.2 82.6 74.3 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.7 16.1 13.8 2.2 74.9 68.2 12.7 14.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.4 14.6 2.7 78.7 71.3 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.9 18.1 13.7 3.1 80.2 72.9 12.8 14.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 16.3 17.5 13.2 3.1 82.1 73.6 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.7 11.0 1.9 72.2 67.7 12.1 14.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.2 17.1 13.6 2.6 78.9 70.7 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 16.9 18.3 12.8 3.0 79.9 73.0 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 11.8 12.7 10.8 2.8 77.5 71.3 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.3 14.1 2.2 75.5 68.2 12.4 13.9 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------