***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.0 13.9 0.2 52.9 50.8 14.1 15.7 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.9 13.5 -0.1 48.5 48.2 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.5 14.1 0.3 53.8 51.6 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.9 8.0 11.7 0.0 49.9 49.1 6.3 8.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 14.0 16.4 12.3 0.2 52.0 50.6 14.5 16.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 12.6 14.8 10.2 -0.2 47.3 47.5 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.7 13.5 -0.1 49.2 48.6 14.5 15.8 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.5 10.4 -0.4 45.3 46.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 13.6 15.8 12.6 -0.1 49.2 49.0 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 13.6 15.6 11.2 -0.3 46.9 47.8 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 13.8 16.1 11.9 0.1 50.8 50.1 14.4 16.0 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 12.7 14.8 11.3 -0.4 45.9 47.3 13.5 15.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 13.8 15.6 10.6 -0.6 43.7 45.9 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.3 16.0 12.3 -0.4 46.0 47.1 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.2 12.6 0.5 57.2 53.5 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 14.3 16.4 11.5 -0.1 49.0 48.9 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 13.6 15.1 13.3 -0.1 48.5 48.2 13.9 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 13.4 15.4 10.8 -0.2 47.9 48.5 14.0 15.6 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.8 13.7 -0.1 49.2 48.8 14.4 15.9 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.2 9.8 7.9 -0.7 42.3 44.7 8.9 10.5 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.2 16.4 13.5 0.3 53.0 50.9 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.7 13.3 -0.2 47.0 47.4 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.3 13.8 0.1 50.9 49.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 14.1 16.0 12.4 -0.2 48.1 48.4 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.2 12.4 0.3 54.2 51.4 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 13.1 15.0 10.4 -0.5 43.9 46.2 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.5 13.2 0.4 54.6 51.7 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.5 15.5 12.0 0.0 49.9 49.1 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.1 10.1 9.8 -0.3 47.0 47.9 8.8 10.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.2 15.8 13.7 -0.1 48.7 48.4 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------