***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.1 17.0 15.0 -0.2 48.0 48.2 15.4 17.2 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.0 14.7 -0.3 46.2 47.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.7 15.3 0.0 50.5 50.1 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.9 13.0 -0.4 45.2 46.6 8.4 10.5 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.9 18.3 13.7 0.0 50.3 50.3 16.3 18.2 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.7 11.7 -0.2 48.3 48.6 14.9 16.9 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.8 14.7 -0.3 46.4 46.9 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.4 12.1 -0.1 49.5 49.6 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 15.3 17.6 14.0 -0.1 48.7 49.2 15.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 15.3 17.8 12.8 -0.1 49.2 49.5 16.0 17.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.5 18.2 13.5 0.1 51.6 51.3 16.0 18.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 14.7 17.0 13.0 0.0 49.7 49.8 15.1 17.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.6 12.3 -0.3 46.9 47.8 15.9 17.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 15.3 17.4 13.7 -0.2 48.0 48.5 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.9 13.7 0.0 50.5 50.2 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 15.8 18.2 13.0 -0.1 49.4 49.6 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.2 14.6 -0.3 47.0 47.5 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 14.9 17.5 12.4 0.1 51.3 50.9 15.5 17.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.0 14.9 -0.2 47.3 47.8 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.6 11.6 9.6 -0.3 47.0 47.3 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 15.6 17.8 14.8 0.0 50.2 50.0 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 14.6 -0.3 46.5 47.2 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.5 15.0 0.0 49.6 49.6 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 15.1 17.4 13.8 -0.1 49.1 49.3 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.6 13.6 -0.1 49.0 49.1 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.9 17.0 12.1 -0.1 48.6 48.9 15.2 17.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.6 14.4 0.0 49.5 49.4 15.9 17.6 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.9 17.7 13.3 -0.4 45.4 46.6 16.3 18.2 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.8 12.3 11.5 0.2 51.7 51.0 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.9 14.8 -0.4 45.7 46.5 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------