***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 3.9 2.8 5.2 52.0 42.4 38.8 2.1 3.3 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 2.5 4.4 44.9 36.9 33.0 2.1 4.1 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 4.5 6.0 55.4 41.9 38.2 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.1 6.7 8.8 66.0 47.7 44.5 4.6 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.0 5.3 7.9 58.7 40.4 37.8 4.1 7.2 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.2 4.2 7.5 55.6 39.2 35.9 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 2.5 4.0 41.5 35.9 31.6 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 12.2 10.5 69.3 46.7 43.1 8.6 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 5.6 8.1 63.9 42.9 40.2 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.0 8.8 11.3 75.3 49.1 45.6 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.2 6.2 8.5 66.0 45.7 42.3 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.8 7.9 60.2 42.1 38.6 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.1 7.8 57.3 38.3 34.5 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.8 5.6 8.8 63.9 44.2 40.4 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.7 3.8 7.8 64.5 49.0 44.7 1.6 4.0 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.2 6.9 53.2 36.8 33.9 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.7 4.0 41.6 36.6 31.7 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 8.8 6.3 11.4 70.9 45.7 42.8 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.3 2.7 4.8 47.4 37.8 34.3 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 6.3 11.7 65.7 43.4 40.6 4.5 7.5 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.4 5.2 7.2 63.1 45.2 41.7 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.2 4.7 47.2 38.8 33.9 1.7 3.5 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.0 2.6 5.5 49.7 38.4 35.6 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.9 7.2 8.9 64.5 43.6 40.1 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.2 6.6 52.1 39.6 36.8 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 3.7 6.9 50.0 34.2 30.7 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.2 5.5 49.2 39.1 36.1 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.3 3.7 8.4 65.9 48.1 44.5 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 15.2 10.4 11.1 67.0 44.5 41.7 6.9 12.4 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.0 2.9 4.7 47.4 38.6 35.2 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------