***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.0 14.3 121.7 70.6 57.1 3.4 6.7 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.6 10.3 84.9 58.6 49.0 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.4 12.8 106.2 65.8 51.3 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.3 13.9 102.4 64.7 49.2 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.9 15.2 111.8 67.3 52.8 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.9 17.2 106.6 65.0 55.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.1 9.9 83.9 58.0 48.3 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.7 16.7 13.8 96.1 60.8 46.7 7.7 12.5 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.6 15.0 111.6 67.3 53.0 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.4 14.0 96.7 61.1 47.2 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.7 14.0 112.8 67.1 50.7 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.3 13.8 112.4 67.2 51.7 3.6 6.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.8 14.5 105.7 65.0 50.8 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.7 17.2 15.0 97.7 62.1 49.4 6.7 12.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.1 11.9 87.7 59.0 44.2 2.5 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.0 15.7 119.6 69.5 55.8 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 9.6 81.5 57.7 48.4 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.2 15.2 94.1 59.5 48.8 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.6 10.8 87.3 59.2 48.8 3.3 6.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.7 16.2 81.7 54.0 43.4 3.8 7.6 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 11.1 13.9 112.6 67.9 52.2 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.0 10.3 81.8 57.3 47.5 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.4 12.0 94.1 61.4 49.6 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.3 14.9 103.1 64.0 51.9 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.0 15.7 112.6 67.7 54.7 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.2 14.9 115.9 68.4 56.1 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.6 14.3 108.6 66.4 53.5 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.7 13.4 98.5 62.8 47.8 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.0 16.1 91.7 58.7 49.0 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.2 10.4 86.6 59.0 47.8 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------