***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.4 9.0 13.5 115.2 68.6 57.6 2.5 5.0 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.1 12.0 99.2 63.6 51.6 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.5 14.4 117.2 69.2 56.7 3.0 5.8 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.0 15.6 17.1 119.8 70.1 58.7 4.7 8.6 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.6 11.7 17.6 126.9 71.9 60.5 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.3 18.7 118.1 68.8 59.2 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.2 11.4 95.6 62.2 51.0 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.7 19.8 18.8 132.7 73.5 61.9 5.3 9.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 10.3 11.9 19.0 137.2 74.6 62.4 2.7 5.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 13.0 14.5 20.2 137.2 74.6 62.6 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 12.7 14.1 16.8 134.8 74.0 62.0 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.3 13.5 16.4 136.9 74.5 63.3 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.0 17.8 130.9 72.9 62.4 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.5 20.1 129.0 72.6 60.3 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.3 14.3 15.5 111.8 67.8 54.6 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.9 17.3 134.9 74.0 63.2 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.5 5.3 12.0 104.1 65.0 51.9 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.8 22.0 133.8 73.7 62.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.8 12.9 105.5 65.9 53.1 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 11.2 12.0 23.8 131.2 73.0 62.6 3.3 6.0 9.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 10.2 11.5 16.4 130.7 73.1 61.0 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.1 7.8 12.8 109.8 67.0 53.4 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.3 8.7 14.6 114.5 68.9 55.4 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.1 11.1 19.4 129.9 72.8 60.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.0 11.9 16.1 115.2 68.3 58.0 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 11.4 11.6 17.0 130.7 72.8 62.3 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.9 9.2 14.2 108.8 66.2 55.9 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.0 16.8 121.0 70.5 59.5 3.5 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 15.7 17.1 22.9 132.9 73.5 62.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.4 12.3 101.7 64.5 52.1 2.2 4.6 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------