***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.5 11.9 117.0 69.3 58.6 3.7 6.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.2 12.0 113.3 67.7 54.4 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.5 12.1 116.8 68.7 58.3 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.6 12.8 109.5 66.6 55.6 5.9 9.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.2 12.8 109.9 66.5 55.5 4.7 8.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.4 13.2 98.0 61.0 52.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.9 11.2 106.5 65.6 53.4 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.4 18.2 14.2 109.7 66.1 56.7 6.2 11.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 12.7 11.5 13.2 112.6 67.5 57.3 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.7 14.5 110.8 66.5 56.9 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.5 12.5 117.9 68.9 57.2 4.1 7.2 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.9 12.6 118.8 69.3 59.0 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.3 14.1 122.5 70.2 59.8 4.0 6.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.3 16.3 122.5 70.5 60.1 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.1 10.9 100.7 63.4 52.4 2.6 4.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.6 13.2 122.2 70.3 58.3 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.9 11.0 106.0 65.8 51.5 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.6 15.8 107.6 65.1 56.3 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.7 12.6 119.7 69.8 57.0 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.5 17.9 108.0 64.9 56.7 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.5 12.2 117.4 69.2 58.2 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.8 11.2 12.2 115.4 68.8 54.3 4.1 6.9 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.4 13.3 123.6 71.0 59.6 4.2 7.1 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.7 11.9 14.6 112.8 67.3 57.8 5.0 7.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.0 13.2 111.2 67.2 56.8 4.4 7.6 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.2 10.5 12.5 114.7 67.5 58.5 3.2 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.2 12.7 111.7 67.5 57.1 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.9 12.0 106.4 65.1 53.9 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 16.8 16.5 107.1 65.0 56.6 7.4 11.7 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.5 11.9 113.5 67.8 55.6 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------