***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 32.3 32.8 44.9 102.9 59.6 52.6 18.9 27.4 37.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 31.9 26.3 38.7 86.8 48.0 44.8 19.0 27.3 37.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 41.2 40.8 45.4 99.5 57.4 51.0 25.7 35.7 47.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 46.6 46.5 52.6 99.5 57.4 52.3 34.7 42.8 51.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 43.3 44.1 53.5 101.8 58.6 53.1 29.5 38.8 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 38.0 35.8 56.6 96.1 53.4 50.1 25.3 33.9 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 22.2 36.6 83.1 45.3 42.3 16.8 24.6 33.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 67.7 67.7 57.2 101.3 57.8 53.2 48.4 61.3 75.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 38.1 41.5 55.3 107.0 62.3 56.0 26.5 34.7 43.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 50.2 52.3 60.0 105.0 60.6 55.1 34.2 44.9 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 43.1 47.1 51.8 107.5 62.3 56.2 28.0 38.3 50.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 42.7 45.3 50.7 105.8 61.1 55.5 27.0 37.4 49.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 42.8 43.7 54.3 103.3 59.3 53.9 29.5 38.3 48.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 51.3 52.7 60.2 103.8 60.0 53.5 36.8 46.3 57.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 39.0 34.9 46.1 91.5 52.7 48.5 22.3 33.0 46.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 37.6 40.4 53.1 106.8 61.8 56.3 25.5 33.8 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 18.8 25.0 36.5 84.5 46.7 43.3 18.9 26.6 35.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 39.5 40.0 64.5 101.7 58.0 53.0 27.2 35.6 44.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 37.9 33.5 41.2 90.8 51.2 47.2 23.5 32.9 43.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 44.1 42.0 69.6 96.3 53.4 49.7 31.4 40.1 49.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 36.6 39.8 49.7 106.4 62.1 55.2 23.6 32.5 42.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.4 30.9 39.9 89.3 50.0 46.1 23.6 30.9 39.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 36.4 34.8 45.4 95.9 55.0 49.7 24.3 32.2 41.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 47.1 48.3 57.8 103.1 59.5 53.4 33.0 42.3 52.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 38.1 37.5 51.6 98.3 56.3 50.8 27.8 34.7 42.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 35.9 36.4 51.4 101.4 57.7 53.5 22.1 31.4 42.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 33.8 31.4 46.7 95.8 54.3 48.7 20.9 29.1 38.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 36.1 35.9 50.6 98.2 56.6 52.2 24.5 32.5 41.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 65.3 65.0 66.7 99.9 56.6 51.9 46.6 59.5 73.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 31.0 25.8 39.4 88.3 48.9 45.1 18.2 26.3 36.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------