***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 1.0 1.0 1.5 -1.9 23.0 28.6 2.0 3.5 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.1 1.1 1.4 -1.8 24.1 29.8 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 3.4 3.4 1.7 -1.8 23.2 29.1 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -2.8 -2.9 -1.2 -2.0 22.3 28.5 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -2.1 21.7 28.3 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.6 -3.3 -2.5 17.2 26.3 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.3 1.3 1.4 -1.8 24.1 29.8 2.0 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 -6.6 -7.9 -3.6 -2.9 13.7 23.5 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 1.1 1.1 0.0 -1.8 23.2 29.2 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 1.3 0.7 -2.4 -2.5 17.4 26.0 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 1.1 0.7 -1.0 -2.1 20.4 27.4 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 -0.6 -1.3 -2.2 -2.5 17.1 25.7 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 0.3 -0.5 -2.4 -2.6 15.7 25.2 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.8 -0.4 -1.9 23.2 29.9 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.6 0.6 -1.6 26.2 30.6 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.4 0.9 -1.6 -2.3 19.2 27.3 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.7 1.7 1.2 -1.8 24.2 29.7 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -0.8 -1.4 -3.0 -2.6 16.7 25.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 1.2 1.1 1.4 -1.8 23.9 29.7 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -4.1 -5.4 -5.3 -3.2 12.6 23.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 0.8 0.9 1.1 -1.8 23.5 28.9 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.2 -1.9 22.6 28.5 1.6 2.8 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 0.8 0.8 1.3 -1.7 24.2 30.1 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 1.1 0.9 -0.5 -2.1 21.2 28.7 1.9 3.1 4.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 0.7 0.6 0.4 -2.1 21.8 27.8 1.7 3.2 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 0.5 -0.4 -2.8 -2.6 15.5 25.5 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 0.9 0.7 0.9 -2.0 22.2 28.2 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -2.0 23.1 28.9 0.5 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 -2.3 -3.3 -4.1 -2.9 14.0 24.2 -1.2 0.3 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 1.4 1.4 1.5 -1.8 23.7 29.4 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------