***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.0 4.1 -0.6 41.7 43.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.2 3.9 -0.4 43.3 44.7 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.3 4.0 -0.7 39.5 42.0 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.8 0.0 1.2 -0.9 36.7 40.1 -0.3 0.9 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.2 1.5 -0.9 35.4 39.8 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.2 1.2 -1.1 -1.4 30.7 37.7 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.2 3.9 -0.5 42.4 43.7 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -1.1 -1.5 29.0 37.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.4 1.8 -0.9 35.8 40.2 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.2 -0.2 -1.3 31.4 38.1 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.5 2.8 0.6 -1.2 31.0 37.5 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.1 1.2 -0.2 -1.4 30.0 37.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.2 -0.7 -1.4 30.6 37.6 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.2 1.7 -0.8 37.5 42.2 4.0 4.9 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.0 3.5 2.3 -0.9 35.0 38.3 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.5 0.0 -1.3 31.3 37.6 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.5 3.8 -0.4 43.9 45.4 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 0.8 1.0 -0.9 -1.3 31.7 38.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.1 3.9 -0.5 42.4 44.3 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -2.9 -1.4 31.3 37.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.4 3.2 -0.7 38.7 41.8 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.5 3.6 -0.4 43.2 45.5 3.0 3.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.5 3.7 -0.6 41.1 43.6 3.1 4.0 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.3 1.3 -1.0 34.9 40.1 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.8 2.7 -0.7 40.1 42.7 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -1.2 33.0 39.5 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.4 3.6 -0.6 41.7 43.5 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.0 1.5 1.3 -1.0 34.1 38.1 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -1.5 -1.3 31.3 37.9 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.5 4.0 -0.5 42.2 43.7 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------