***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.8 2.8 2.9 -1.1 25.5 29.9 3.2 3.9 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.5 2.6 2.7 -1.0 26.0 30.1 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 4.8 4.8 3.0 -1.1 23.6 27.9 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 0.4 -1.1 24.4 28.5 -0.9 0.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 1.5 1.6 0.9 -1.2 22.6 27.3 2.0 2.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 0.6 0.4 -1.8 -1.6 16.8 23.0 1.2 1.9 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.8 2.8 2.7 -1.1 25.4 29.7 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -5.1 -5.6 -1.9 -1.8 14.1 20.5 -4.2 -3.3 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.8 2.8 1.3 -1.0 25.8 30.3 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.9 -1.5 18.7 24.2 3.2 3.7 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.5 2.4 0.3 -1.2 21.3 26.5 2.9 3.4 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.6 -0.8 -1.5 17.5 23.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.7 -1.0 -1.5 17.4 23.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 3.4 3.5 1.0 -1.0 26.1 30.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 3.2 1.9 -0.8 29.6 32.5 3.4 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 2.9 2.8 -0.3 -1.3 20.0 25.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.6 -1.1 25.7 29.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 0.6 0.5 -1.5 -1.6 17.9 23.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.6 2.6 2.7 -1.0 25.7 29.8 3.0 3.7 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.8 -2.1 12.5 18.9 -1.7 -1.0 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.5 2.5 2.4 -1.0 25.6 29.8 2.9 3.5 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.4 2.4 2.5 -1.1 24.9 29.2 2.7 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.2 2.3 2.6 -1.0 25.9 29.9 2.6 3.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.6 0.8 -1.2 22.2 26.9 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.5 2.5 1.8 -1.1 24.9 29.4 2.9 3.6 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 1.8 1.5 -1.4 -1.6 16.7 23.2 2.3 2.9 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.7 2.8 2.5 -1.1 25.2 29.8 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.2 0.7 -1.1 24.3 28.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -2.5 -1.8 14.8 20.9 0.0 0.8 1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.8 -1.1 25.2 29.4 3.4 4.0 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------