***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 8.0 6.1 7.9 -4.1 8.4 9.9 10.3 12.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 8.4 7.0 8.1 -3.9 9.5 10.9 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 8.5 6.6 7.9 -4.4 8.1 9.8 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -0.9 -3.0 4.6 -4.4 8.3 10.2 2.1 4.4 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 7.8 5.1 5.7 -4.9 5.9 7.8 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 6.6 2.6 2.8 -5.6 3.6 5.4 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 8.1 6.5 7.9 -3.9 8.8 10.3 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -3.3 -7.0 3.0 -5.9 3.7 5.1 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 7.7 5.3 6.9 -4.8 6.4 8.3 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 7.5 4.2 4.3 -5.6 4.8 6.5 10.2 12.4 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 7.6 4.6 5.9 -5.2 5.5 7.3 10.4 12.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 6.6 3.1 4.4 -5.4 4.6 6.2 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 7.8 4.1 5.1 -5.5 3.9 5.9 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 8.5 6.2 6.7 -5.0 7.0 8.7 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 7.2 6.0 7.8 -3.7 11.5 13.1 9.9 12.2 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 8.2 5.0 5.2 -5.2 4.9 6.9 10.9 13.1 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 7.7 6.3 7.7 -3.8 9.4 10.7 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 7.4 3.9 3.5 -5.7 4.4 6.0 10.1 12.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 8.4 6.9 8.1 -4.1 9.5 10.9 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 2.6 -1.7 0.9 -6.0 3.0 4.2 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 8.1 5.9 7.7 -4.6 6.8 8.7 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 8.4 7.0 7.9 -4.0 9.3 10.5 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 8.7 7.1 8.0 -4.3 9.0 10.5 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 8.2 5.6 6.3 -5.2 6.1 7.9 10.7 12.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 7.8 5.7 6.6 -4.3 7.3 8.9 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 7.3 3.0 3.3 -5.6 3.0 4.4 10.0 12.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 8.1 6.1 7.3 -4.1 7.5 9.1 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 7.1 5.1 5.8 -4.4 8.9 10.7 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 2.3 -1.8 2.5 -6.0 3.5 4.9 5.1 7.2 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 8.2 6.6 8.1 -4.0 9.1 10.6 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------