***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.2 10.2 -2.3 23.5 29.0 13.1 14.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 12.2 12.4 10.3 -2.1 25.4 30.5 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.7 10.4 -2.3 24.2 29.9 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.4 4.2 7.3 -2.5 23.6 29.7 5.3 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 12.8 12.6 8.5 -2.6 23.0 29.6 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 11.1 10.9 6.2 -2.8 22.6 29.6 12.2 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 12.1 12.2 10.1 -2.1 24.8 30.0 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 0.4 0.0 6.5 -2.9 21.9 28.6 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 12.7 12.5 9.3 -2.5 23.6 30.0 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 12.4 12.1 7.5 -2.8 22.5 29.1 13.3 14.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 12.5 12.2 8.6 -2.7 23.0 29.6 13.3 15.0 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 11.4 11.1 7.6 -2.7 22.8 29.6 12.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 12.2 11.9 7.7 -2.8 21.7 29.1 13.3 15.1 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.7 9.2 -2.5 24.6 30.7 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 12.1 12.2 9.3 -2.3 25.6 30.7 12.9 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 12.8 12.4 8.0 -2.7 22.6 29.5 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 11.5 11.6 10.0 -2.0 26.0 31.1 12.1 13.2 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 11.9 11.7 6.9 -2.8 22.9 29.3 12.8 14.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.5 10.4 -2.2 25.3 30.6 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 6.1 6.0 4.4 -2.8 22.4 28.7 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.7 10.1 -2.4 24.0 30.0 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 12.4 12.5 10.2 -2.1 26.0 31.2 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.8 10.5 -2.3 25.2 30.8 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 12.6 12.4 9.1 -2.6 24.0 30.2 13.4 14.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.5 8.8 -2.5 22.5 28.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 11.5 11.3 6.7 -2.7 21.8 29.2 12.7 14.4 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.4 9.5 -2.4 22.9 28.7 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.2 8.1 -2.5 24.5 30.3 13.2 14.8 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 6.5 6.4 6.1 -2.8 23.2 29.5 7.6 9.4 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 12.2 12.3 10.3 -2.2 24.7 29.9 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------