***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.9 15.6 13.0 -0.7 41.9 43.3 14.8 16.3 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.0 13.0 -0.6 43.0 44.4 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.1 13.4 -0.6 43.0 44.3 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.4 10.6 -1.0 39.7 42.0 6.7 8.4 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.3 15.9 11.5 -0.8 41.6 43.7 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.0 14.6 9.5 -0.8 42.1 44.2 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.8 12.9 -0.6 42.4 43.8 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.5 10.0 -0.9 41.1 43.7 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.9 15.7 12.0 -0.7 43.1 44.9 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 15.6 10.8 -0.8 42.6 44.8 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.6 11.4 -0.9 41.5 44.0 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.2 14.6 10.9 -1.0 40.6 43.5 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.1 15.6 10.0 -1.0 40.3 43.3 14.9 16.5 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.4 12.1 -0.5 45.0 46.7 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.9 11.3 -1.0 38.8 40.9 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.5 15.9 10.8 -0.9 40.8 43.4 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.3 12.8 -0.5 43.7 45.0 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.5 10.5 -0.7 43.6 45.6 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.9 13.2 -0.6 43.4 44.7 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.0 7.6 -0.9 41.3 43.5 9.2 10.8 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.1 15.9 12.8 -0.7 43.1 44.5 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.0 12.9 -0.5 44.2 45.6 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.3 13.4 -0.6 44.0 45.3 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.1 12.0 -0.6 44.2 45.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.4 11.4 -0.9 40.6 42.5 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.7 9.7 -1.1 38.3 41.5 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.1 15.9 12.3 -0.8 41.3 42.9 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.6 14.9 10.8 -1.0 39.8 42.0 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.2 9.5 -0.8 42.9 45.0 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.8 13.0 -0.7 42.5 43.8 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------