***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.8 16.2 14.5 -0.6 43.6 44.9 15.1 16.8 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.3 14.2 -0.6 42.6 44.4 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.3 16.7 14.7 -0.6 43.3 44.6 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.4 9.6 12.3 -0.5 44.3 45.0 8.2 10.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 15.4 17.2 13.0 -0.6 44.0 44.9 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.4 11.1 -0.4 46.5 47.0 14.8 16.8 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.2 14.2 -0.6 43.1 44.9 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.8 11.5 -0.6 44.5 45.6 3.6 5.3 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.9 13.4 -0.6 44.2 45.0 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.0 12.3 -0.6 44.4 45.5 15.8 17.6 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 15.3 17.1 12.9 -0.6 43.9 44.9 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.3 12.5 -0.6 44.0 45.2 15.0 16.9 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.3 17.2 11.8 -0.5 44.7 45.9 15.9 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.1 16.6 13.2 -0.6 43.8 45.1 15.6 17.2 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.5 17.1 13.0 -0.5 44.2 45.0 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.6 17.5 12.4 -0.6 44.4 45.4 16.2 18.1 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.5 14.0 -0.6 42.4 44.3 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.6 11.9 -0.5 45.3 46.3 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.2 14.4 -0.7 42.5 44.2 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.5 9.2 -0.4 46.4 47.2 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 15.3 16.9 14.1 -0.6 44.1 45.0 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.2 14.0 -0.7 41.9 43.9 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.5 14.5 -0.7 42.7 44.3 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 15.0 16.6 13.2 -0.6 44.2 45.4 15.5 17.1 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.8 13.0 -0.5 44.4 45.4 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.4 11.5 -0.6 44.3 45.7 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.8 13.8 -0.5 44.6 45.7 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 15.5 17.4 12.5 -0.6 44.2 44.9 16.2 18.0 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.7 11.5 11.0 -0.4 45.8 46.8 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.3 14.3 -0.6 42.9 44.6 15.4 16.9 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------