***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 13.4 13.1 11.4 -1.9 18.8 23.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 13.6 13.4 11.4 -1.8 19.6 24.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 14.0 13.6 11.6 -2.0 18.5 23.2 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 5.5 5.1 8.7 -2.1 18.0 22.5 6.3 7.5 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 13.7 13.3 9.7 -2.2 16.9 21.7 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 12.3 11.9 7.4 -2.4 16.4 21.8 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 13.5 13.3 11.3 -1.8 19.3 23.9 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 1.4 1.0 7.7 -2.6 14.9 19.9 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 13.7 13.3 10.4 -2.2 17.8 22.7 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 13.5 13.0 8.7 -2.5 16.1 21.1 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 13.4 13.1 9.7 -2.4 16.5 21.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 12.4 11.9 8.9 -2.4 15.8 20.7 13.4 14.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 13.4 12.9 8.6 -2.4 15.4 20.8 14.4 15.5 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 14.1 13.8 10.3 -2.2 18.3 23.3 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 13.3 13.1 10.4 -1.9 20.4 24.2 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 13.8 13.3 9.1 -2.4 16.3 21.5 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.7 11.1 -1.8 19.9 24.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 13.2 12.8 8.2 -2.4 16.5 21.7 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 13.6 13.4 11.5 -1.9 19.5 23.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 7.8 7.2 5.5 -2.5 15.5 20.4 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 13.8 13.5 11.2 -2.1 18.1 22.9 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 13.8 13.6 11.2 -1.8 19.6 24.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 14.0 13.8 11.6 -1.9 19.4 23.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.4 10.1 -2.2 17.5 22.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 13.5 13.2 9.9 -2.1 17.7 22.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 12.6 12.1 7.8 -2.5 14.2 19.2 13.7 14.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 13.6 13.3 10.8 -1.9 18.4 23.1 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 13.4 13.1 9.3 -2.1 18.7 23.1 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 7.9 7.4 7.3 -2.5 15.9 21.1 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 13.5 13.3 11.4 -1.9 19.2 23.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------