***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 6.7 8.3 15.8 165.4 80.6 74.3 2.4 3.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 7.7 9.2 12.2 136.7 74.6 66.8 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 12.5 16.8 16.0 171.2 81.2 73.7 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.2 14.3 17.7 160.3 79.4 69.0 4.5 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 13.5 19.5 20.3 206.4 87.3 79.7 4.6 7.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 11.1 16.6 18.9 196.8 86.0 78.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.2 8.6 12.1 137.5 74.8 66.9 2.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 22.0 29.2 20.3 176.0 83.1 75.7 7.9 12.8 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 12.2 17.2 18.6 197.7 86.2 79.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 17.3 25.1 21.4 192.8 86.2 79.1 4.6 8.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 13.7 20.1 19.2 197.5 86.2 78.1 3.7 6.6 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.4 20.1 16.9 174.1 82.4 74.5 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 13.3 20.6 21.6 227.6 89.8 82.8 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 13.5 17.5 20.8 175.7 82.5 76.2 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.4 11.9 13.4 142.3 75.8 61.6 1.6 3.9 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 11.2 16.9 19.1 205.3 87.0 78.3 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 4.1 7.4 10.8 126.5 72.0 64.4 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 14.4 20.5 22.2 190.5 86.1 78.9 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 9.5 11.6 12.8 140.7 75.4 67.9 2.2 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 14.1 20.1 24.0 186.5 85.3 79.1 4.3 7.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 11.3 15.5 18.4 193.9 85.3 78.4 3.8 6.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 5.0 7.9 10.4 116.1 69.0 62.0 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 7.6 9.3 13.7 144.3 76.2 69.0 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 17.1 23.5 19.7 185.4 84.5 76.9 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 8.7 12.3 19.7 182.8 83.7 76.1 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 12.1 18.0 18.9 197.3 86.1 77.9 3.5 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 8.4 10.7 16.6 162.9 80.2 73.4 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.7 11.4 16.1 164.0 80.1 67.7 1.7 3.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.5 35.2 22.4 185.8 85.3 78.3 6.6 11.8 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 8.9 10.8 12.9 141.9 75.7 68.3 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------