***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.6 11.0 89.9 58.6 49.1 3.7 7.2 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.1 9.5 89.4 58.1 48.6 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.2 12.1 12.5 101.2 62.8 52.5 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.2 14.3 95.3 60.7 51.2 4.0 7.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.1 13.3 93.4 59.2 50.1 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 14.8 90.8 57.0 48.2 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.4 9.5 92.0 59.3 48.9 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.8 14.6 94.0 59.5 49.5 8.1 13.7 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.0 13.9 97.9 61.0 50.7 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.0 14.2 93.5 59.3 48.8 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.9 13.9 95.2 60.3 51.1 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.0 14.5 99.7 61.7 51.9 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.3 15.4 97.4 60.3 51.4 5.1 9.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.4 14.5 92.2 59.0 50.1 7.1 12.6 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.2 13.3 90.8 60.3 49.5 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.4 14.8 98.3 61.1 51.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.5 8.8 84.4 56.0 45.7 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.8 14.5 93.0 58.9 47.8 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.4 9.9 88.2 57.5 48.6 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.5 17.2 92.5 59.0 49.6 4.8 8.7 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.1 13.4 100.3 62.2 52.0 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.3 8.9 78.5 53.1 44.7 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.5 11.3 91.9 58.9 50.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.2 14.1 96.1 60.4 49.6 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.1 14.0 97.0 61.1 52.3 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.4 15.0 94.5 59.5 51.1 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.4 12.6 94.1 60.0 51.0 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.4 13.7 91.3 59.7 49.2 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 18.1 15.7 94.5 59.7 49.8 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.7 10.1 92.1 59.4 49.7 2.7 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------