***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.3 15.6 128.2 72.1 58.2 4.2 7.5 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 13.1 14.7 131.6 73.1 56.4 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.3 15.8 129.0 72.4 58.5 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 18.0 17.8 121.7 70.1 53.8 6.9 11.0 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.3 17.2 125.0 71.1 55.0 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.6 17.1 108.9 65.3 53.3 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.4 14.3 130.3 72.7 56.1 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 18.7 17.0 111.8 66.6 53.4 5.9 11.2 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 15.3 18.3 129.4 72.4 56.8 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 17.4 18.6 116.9 68.2 54.5 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.1 15.4 116.1 68.2 53.5 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.3 15.1 114.2 67.7 53.7 3.1 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.1 10.9 16.1 108.3 65.4 52.5 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.9 17.0 20.4 119.8 69.5 57.3 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.1 17.0 119.3 69.6 52.6 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.9 15.5 110.1 66.1 52.5 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.7 14.2 127.6 72.0 53.2 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.3 19.9 115.3 67.7 55.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 16.6 15.4 132.1 73.3 57.6 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.0 20.7 113.6 67.1 54.3 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.1 14.4 16.9 130.6 72.9 58.1 4.8 8.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.7 15.1 125.4 71.3 54.6 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.0 14.8 16.5 131.4 73.1 58.8 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.3 18.7 121.4 69.9 56.7 5.2 8.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.6 18.0 129.0 72.4 57.6 5.0 8.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.8 15.4 106.8 65.1 52.3 2.5 5.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.5 15.1 16.6 127.8 72.0 58.4 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.1 16.8 113.8 67.5 52.1 4.3 7.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 19.0 20.2 114.9 67.6 55.1 7.0 11.9 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.6 12.0 15.0 132.8 73.5 58.2 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------