***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 41.3 43.6 56.8 122.0 71.8 66.3 19.6 28.3 38.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 33.2 39.9 48.8 114.9 67.2 60.3 20.2 28.8 39.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 52.0 56.1 58.7 126.2 74.5 67.8 25.2 35.6 47.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 48.6 56.7 65.9 119.1 70.1 63.2 36.9 45.3 54.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 53.1 58.6 66.8 127.7 75.4 69.1 30.8 40.3 50.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 38.8 47.3 67.0 115.9 69.0 61.8 25.2 34.3 44.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.6 35.9 47.8 114.3 66.8 60.1 17.5 25.6 35.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 79.0 82.0 68.3 118.4 70.3 64.5 49.5 62.7 77.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 47.8 52.8 67.7 128.2 75.9 69.5 26.6 35.3 45.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 61.0 65.3 71.7 122.4 73.0 67.0 35.2 46.2 58.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 52.4 57.8 63.7 123.8 73.3 67.0 28.1 38.7 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 53.5 56.4 61.2 119.7 71.0 64.5 29.9 40.3 52.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 51.9 56.1 68.8 123.3 74.0 67.5 30.1 39.4 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 61.9 63.0 73.2 118.3 70.6 65.3 37.3 47.7 59.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 40.8 48.3 59.6 113.9 66.4 58.6 26.1 36.2 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 45.7 49.4 64.6 121.6 72.6 65.7 26.1 34.8 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 31.9 36.4 45.9 110.2 64.1 56.8 19.4 27.8 37.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 48.1 51.1 74.9 121.0 72.7 66.9 28.0 36.5 46.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 38.8 46.8 51.0 115.5 67.7 61.1 24.0 33.9 45.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 53.9 56.9 81.9 120.3 71.9 66.5 33.1 42.4 52.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 46.8 53.1 64.4 130.5 77.0 70.8 25.1 33.9 43.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 37.0 39.3 47.7 106.3 61.6 55.5 24.0 32.5 42.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 37.2 44.4 55.2 116.4 68.4 62.3 24.8 33.2 42.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 56.7 60.5 69.6 122.9 73.3 67.3 31.7 42.2 53.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 45.2 49.1 67.7 126.8 74.8 69.6 28.2 35.5 43.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 37.0 47.6 64.4 116.9 69.2 63.1 23.2 33.0 44.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 43.2 45.6 60.7 121.5 71.6 66.6 24.1 32.3 41.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 38.0 43.9 62.2 115.0 67.6 60.0 27.0 34.6 43.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 79.3 82.9 77.0 120.3 72.2 66.7 47.1 60.8 75.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 39.9 39.8 51.1 117.6 69.0 62.5 18.9 27.5 37.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------