***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.4 4.8 1.3 70.9 65.6 2.3 3.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.7 4.5 1.2 69.7 64.3 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.9 4.3 1.1 69.5 64.4 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9 67.2 63.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 4.4 4.3 2.0 1.0 68.4 64.0 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 3.4 3.3 0.3 1.0 68.4 65.5 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 4.7 4.8 4.6 1.3 71.5 65.5 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.0 -2.7 0.2 0.6 59.9 59.3 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.1 2.8 1.1 70.3 65.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.3 0.8 0.6 61.5 59.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 4.8 4.5 1.6 0.8 65.6 62.7 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 3.5 3.1 1.3 0.8 64.7 62.7 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.3 0.9 0.9 67.3 64.3 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.6 2.5 0.7 62.8 59.3 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.9 2.4 1.0 69.6 64.9 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.2 1.3 0.9 66.6 63.7 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.6 4.4 1.2 69.7 63.7 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.8 -0.1 0.3 56.0 55.5 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.6 4.3 1.1 68.5 63.4 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -1.1 -2.2 0.2 52.8 53.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 5.0 5.0 3.8 1.2 70.5 65.1 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.0 4.3 1.1 68.2 62.6 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 4.2 4.1 3.9 0.9 66.9 62.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 3.7 4.0 2.2 0.7 62.8 59.8 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.1 2.8 1.1 69.0 64.5 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 4.3 4.1 1.0 0.9 67.2 64.3 1.6 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.8 3.9 1.3 70.8 65.5 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.6 3.4 2.0 0.9 67.3 63.4 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 0.9 0.9 -0.8 0.4 55.9 55.9 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 5.2 5.3 4.6 1.2 70.2 64.8 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------