***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.5 5.4 0.7 61.2 58.8 4.0 4.9 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.6 5.3 0.8 63.7 60.8 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.0 5.1 0.7 62.5 59.7 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.7 2.1 2.9 0.7 62.1 59.5 0.2 1.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.3 3.0 0.6 60.8 58.4 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 3.8 3.4 1.3 0.7 62.9 60.5 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.6 5.3 0.8 63.4 60.6 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -1.8 1.3 0.3 56.5 55.9 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.2 3.5 0.6 60.6 58.4 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 1.9 0.4 56.7 56.4 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.8 2.5 0.5 59.1 57.2 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.4 2.2 0.4 58.3 56.5 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 4.9 4.2 1.8 0.5 58.8 57.3 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.7 3.4 0.4 57.7 57.5 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.5 3.5 0.8 64.1 61.3 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 6.2 5.6 2.2 0.5 59.3 57.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.8 5.1 0.8 63.8 61.0 4.3 5.1 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.1 52.2 54.3 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.6 5.1 0.8 63.5 60.5 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 49.8 52.8 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.2 4.6 0.7 61.4 58.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.1 4.9 5.1 0.8 63.7 60.9 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.7 5.0 4.8 0.7 62.8 59.9 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.9 3.1 0.4 57.3 56.9 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.5 3.8 0.7 61.7 59.3 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.2 2.0 0.5 58.5 57.0 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.2 4.6 0.7 61.0 58.8 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.5 3.2 0.7 62.2 59.7 1.6 2.7 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 50.7 53.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 5.3 0.8 63.2 60.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------