***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.9 6.6 1.0 65.5 62.0 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.5 6.4 1.0 66.5 62.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.9 6.2 1.0 65.8 62.2 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.4 3.3 4.1 1.0 66.0 62.8 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 5.8 5.6 4.0 1.0 65.6 62.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.7 2.5 1.0 66.4 62.5 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 7.1 6.9 6.5 1.1 67.1 63.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -0.4 2.6 1.0 66.1 62.1 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.3 4.6 1.0 65.2 61.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.4 3.2 0.9 65.1 61.7 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.2 3.6 0.9 65.5 62.1 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.0 3.4 0.9 65.8 62.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.8 2.9 0.9 65.2 61.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.7 4.5 0.7 62.3 59.2 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.1 4.6 1.0 66.5 63.4 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.0 3.3 0.9 65.5 62.1 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.0 6.7 6.3 0.9 65.3 61.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.1 2.5 0.9 63.3 60.2 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.6 6.3 1.0 66.1 62.2 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.7 1.0 0.9 64.2 60.5 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.5 5.6 1.0 64.8 61.4 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.3 5.9 6.1 0.8 63.8 60.5 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.2 5.9 0.9 65.4 61.5 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.2 4.3 0.9 63.9 60.6 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.6 4.9 1.0 65.3 61.9 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.6 3.2 0.9 64.9 61.1 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.5 5.8 1.0 65.5 62.1 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.3 4.3 1.0 66.5 63.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.4 2.0 0.8 62.8 59.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.1 6.5 1.1 66.7 62.9 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------