***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 4.8 5.1 4.9 0.9 73.4 68.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.9 4.7 0.9 75.3 69.1 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.2 4.6 0.8 73.6 67.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.5 63.7 60.3 -0.7 0.2 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.3 2.1 0.3 59.8 56.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.5 0.4 0.4 62.2 59.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.9 4.7 0.9 73.1 67.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.8 0.5 0.3 58.4 55.8 -4.1 -3.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.4 2.7 0.5 64.4 59.8 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.2 1.1 0.3 58.6 55.9 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.0 1.7 0.3 60.3 57.1 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.7 1.3 0.3 59.8 56.5 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.5 1.0 0.3 59.2 56.4 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.7 2.6 0.3 59.3 56.4 3.9 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.3 4.7 2.8 0.6 67.4 63.7 3.6 4.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 59.4 56.4 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.9 4.5 0.8 72.8 67.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 1.7 0.1 -0.1 47.7 48.2 1.2 1.8 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 4.6 5.0 4.7 0.9 75.6 69.1 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -0.9 -1.6 -0.1 47.3 48.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.5 3.9 0.6 68.0 62.9 3.1 3.7 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 4.0 4.2 4.5 0.8 72.7 66.7 2.8 3.4 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 4.1 4.4 4.3 0.8 74.2 67.5 2.8 3.4 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.0 2.3 0.3 59.0 56.2 3.2 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 4.6 4.8 3.3 0.8 72.4 67.1 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 52.5 51.5 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.3 4.0 0.8 70.9 66.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 2.6 2.8 2.3 0.4 61.9 59.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.8 -0.4 40.1 43.1 0.1 0.9 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.3 4.8 0.9 75.5 69.5 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------