***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.9 14.0 12.9 1.1 63.3 62.6 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 14.3 14.2 13.1 1.3 66.1 65.2 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 13.4 14.3 13.1 1.0 61.9 61.4 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 5.1 4.5 9.2 -0.1 48.8 48.9 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 13.2 13.0 10.4 0.1 51.0 51.1 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 12.1 10.5 7.4 -0.8 41.8 42.4 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.1 13.1 1.5 67.9 67.0 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 1.5 1.5 8.9 0.2 51.9 51.9 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 13.0 13.4 11.9 0.6 56.1 55.9 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.1 10.2 0.4 53.8 53.7 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 13.0 13.1 10.5 0.3 53.0 53.0 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 12.1 12.2 9.7 0.3 52.8 52.8 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 13.1 13.5 10.0 0.5 55.2 55.0 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 13.7 14.8 12.5 1.3 63.3 62.7 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 12.8 12.7 11.0 0.2 52.0 52.0 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 13.5 13.7 10.2 0.4 53.9 53.8 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.5 12.9 1.5 68.4 67.4 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 12.6 12.5 9.3 0.2 51.9 52.0 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 13.1 14.2 13.2 1.3 64.8 64.1 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 7.8 7.4 6.7 0.0 49.9 50.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 13.2 13.8 12.6 0.8 58.2 57.9 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 14.5 14.5 13.1 1.4 66.9 66.1 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 13.6 14.6 13.2 1.2 63.6 62.9 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 13.3 13.9 11.7 0.8 58.2 57.9 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 12.9 13.7 11.5 0.9 60.8 60.3 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 12.4 12.5 8.8 0.2 51.8 51.8 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 14.4 14.2 12.4 1.2 64.9 64.1 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 13.1 12.4 9.9 -0.2 48.0 48.1 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 7.7 7.3 8.2 0.0 50.1 50.3 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 14.2 14.1 13.1 1.3 65.2 64.5 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------