***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 18.3 18.1 16.8 1.3 66.5 62.3 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.4 18.1 16.6 1.2 65.5 61.5 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.8 18.6 16.9 1.3 65.7 61.7 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.9 15.3 1.3 65.5 61.9 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.3 15.6 1.4 65.9 62.0 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.6 13.9 1.6 66.6 62.8 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 18.2 18.0 16.6 1.3 66.4 62.0 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.9 14.3 1.5 66.3 61.9 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 19.1 18.9 16.0 1.4 66.0 61.9 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.0 19.0 15.0 1.5 66.0 61.8 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.3 15.2 1.5 66.5 62.4 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 17.3 18.5 15.0 1.5 66.4 62.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 18.3 19.5 14.6 1.6 66.5 62.6 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.3 15.8 1.3 64.2 60.5 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.9 15.5 1.2 65.2 61.7 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.8 15.0 1.5 66.4 62.5 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.2 16.4 1.2 65.3 61.2 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 18.3 14.4 1.4 65.2 60.9 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.3 18.0 16.8 1.2 65.0 61.2 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.2 12.1 1.4 64.6 60.1 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 19.0 18.7 16.6 1.4 65.8 61.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.8 16.5 1.1 63.8 60.4 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.6 18.3 16.7 1.2 64.7 61.1 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.5 18.3 15.8 1.4 65.1 61.1 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 18.8 18.6 15.5 1.4 66.3 62.4 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 17.5 18.7 14.2 1.5 66.3 62.4 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 18.8 18.6 16.2 1.4 66.8 62.6 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 18.4 19.4 15.5 1.3 65.3 61.7 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 13.1 13.3 1.4 64.7 60.3 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 18.4 18.1 16.8 1.3 65.8 61.8 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------