***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.1 14.7 0.9 68.9 64.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.1 14.6 0.9 69.0 64.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 14.8 0.8 67.3 63.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.5 12.6 0.6 62.2 59.5 6.6 7.7 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.5 13.1 0.7 62.7 59.6 14.7 15.8 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.4 11.2 0.6 62.0 59.4 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.0 14.6 1.0 70.7 65.7 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.2 11.5 0.5 59.6 57.3 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.3 13.8 0.7 64.3 60.7 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.1 12.4 0.6 60.9 58.2 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.4 12.8 0.7 63.2 60.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.5 12.4 0.6 61.9 59.1 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.7 12.2 0.8 65.1 61.7 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.4 13.7 0.8 64.7 60.9 14.8 15.6 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.0 13.2 0.7 64.1 61.2 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.4 17.0 12.6 0.8 64.7 61.4 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.2 14.4 0.9 69.7 64.7 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 11.6 0.4 57.4 55.5 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.1 14.7 0.9 67.9 63.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.1 9.0 0.2 53.0 52.3 8.8 9.9 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.4 14.4 0.8 65.7 61.8 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.0 14.5 0.8 67.5 63.1 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.4 14.7 0.8 66.6 62.5 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 13.5 0.7 62.8 59.5 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.3 13.4 0.9 68.2 64.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.9 11.6 0.7 63.2 60.3 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.5 14.1 1.0 70.2 65.5 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.2 12.9 0.6 62.0 59.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.3 10.5 0.3 55.7 54.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.1 14.8 0.9 69.1 64.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------