***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.4 4.9 40.4 31.6 27.6 2.6 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.4 4.6 40.3 31.5 27.7 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.9 3.1 5.0 40.7 31.6 27.0 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.0 5.7 7.4 48.4 36.4 31.8 5.2 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.3 5.9 41.2 29.9 26.1 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.7 2.4 6.1 41.2 28.6 25.7 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.7 2.8 4.5 39.9 32.0 28.2 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 8.0 8.6 6.7 45.4 31.2 27.9 9.1 14.3 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.2 4.7 6.0 44.8 33.3 28.6 4.7 7.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.1 5.1 6.5 44.1 30.2 27.1 5.7 9.8 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.4 5.3 6.3 46.6 33.3 28.9 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.3 6.2 46.1 33.2 28.9 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.0 3.6 6.3 44.3 30.1 27.2 4.0 7.2 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.7 4.2 5.0 34.4 24.9 21.9 5.7 9.4 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.0 6.4 43.5 35.6 30.6 2.6 5.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.6 3.7 6.3 45.6 31.4 27.9 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 2.5 2.9 4.3 39.9 31.8 26.5 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.2 6.9 44.8 29.4 26.7 4.8 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.7 41.1 31.8 27.5 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.4 7.5 43.0 30.4 27.0 4.8 8.2 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.6 6.2 48.6 37.3 31.8 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.2 2.7 5.0 44.6 33.4 28.6 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.4 4.9 40.0 31.2 26.3 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.2 5.3 5.9 41.8 29.6 25.8 6.0 10.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.2 5.7 39.4 29.1 26.0 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.3 3.1 6.6 45.5 31.7 28.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 2.5 5.4 40.1 30.0 26.9 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.5 6.5 44.0 34.5 29.4 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.5 7.5 7.3 45.1 30.2 27.2 8.3 14.1 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.7 2.5 4.6 39.3 30.5 26.9 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------