***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.3 11.8 12.7 116.0 68.7 57.1 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.8 9.8 13.7 118.7 69.6 58.3 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.1 13.1 118.8 69.5 57.7 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.6 15.8 128.3 72.2 61.3 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.6 14.9 124.9 71.2 60.9 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.2 18.7 126.5 71.5 60.7 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.6 9.2 13.6 115.9 68.9 57.9 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 22.6 24.3 15.9 132.2 73.2 62.5 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.7 13.4 14.6 124.4 71.1 60.9 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.3 15.5 124.3 70.9 60.6 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.5 17.0 14.5 136.1 74.4 62.7 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.7 16.9 14.8 143.0 76.2 64.4 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 16.6 18.8 17.1 140.6 75.9 64.6 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.0 20.8 17.1 128.0 72.1 58.3 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.8 15.5 125.4 71.6 60.0 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 14.2 16.5 16.2 141.7 76.1 63.8 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 11.2 13.6 117.6 69.5 58.6 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 12.8 13.2 17.2 123.8 70.6 59.6 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.0 12.4 14.0 123.7 70.9 58.6 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.9 20.3 129.1 72.3 61.3 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.2 13.2 13.1 120.4 70.0 59.7 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.6 14.7 127.4 72.1 60.0 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.1 14.7 128.9 72.4 58.8 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.9 15.8 123.0 70.5 58.6 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.0 15.2 116.0 68.2 58.8 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.9 14.6 16.9 141.1 75.9 64.8 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.3 14.6 115.8 68.3 58.1 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.8 15.9 130.9 73.1 60.9 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 20.0 21.2 18.6 128.3 72.1 60.2 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.7 9.7 13.5 118.0 69.3 57.7 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------