***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 8.1 12.7 119.0 69.5 54.9 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.8 12.4 103.1 63.5 51.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 11.4 12.9 120.3 69.7 55.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.4 14.4 118.2 68.8 54.5 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.9 14.6 119.5 69.3 56.0 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.7 16.3 104.0 62.1 52.1 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.0 6.5 12.4 102.1 62.7 50.5 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 15.9 15.7 121.2 69.7 58.7 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.2 8.5 14.3 118.9 69.1 55.9 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.2 15.8 120.8 69.6 58.2 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.7 9.6 13.7 119.4 69.4 57.6 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.9 11.2 13.7 122.0 70.1 58.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.0 15.2 117.3 68.1 55.9 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 11.4 12.5 16.8 131.4 73.1 59.3 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.3 12.7 110.1 66.4 51.8 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.2 14.2 116.2 67.9 55.4 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.2 11.9 96.9 61.1 49.6 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.6 8.4 18.1 125.4 71.2 59.7 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.2 12.4 108.8 65.6 52.7 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 11.6 20.1 120.9 69.5 58.1 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.4 13.0 118.4 69.1 54.7 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.8 12.4 102.7 63.4 51.4 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.4 12.9 120.6 69.8 55.7 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.6 11.5 16.2 129.3 72.4 59.5 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.8 14.2 110.8 66.2 53.2 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.8 14.6 119.1 69.0 57.7 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.1 13.9 112.1 66.9 53.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.5 13.7 115.0 67.8 53.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 17.0 19.3 126.1 71.4 59.6 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.7 12.6 108.5 65.7 52.7 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------