***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 4.5 11.9 9.5 95.2 60.5 42.9 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 11.4 9.8 96.2 61.2 43.4 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 4.4 10.5 9.2 87.0 56.7 41.2 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.8 11.2 9.5 74.2 52.1 39.9 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.3 10.6 9.6 74.2 52.3 40.5 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.5 12.9 80.3 53.5 43.7 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.6 9.7 93.9 60.0 42.4 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.0 15.0 9.7 75.6 50.5 41.7 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.0 10.0 77.9 53.9 41.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 7.1 12.9 10.3 75.6 50.9 40.8 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.6 8.8 8.3 69.0 49.6 40.0 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.9 8.7 8.3 73.7 51.6 41.9 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.0 10.6 79.4 54.0 43.8 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.4 12.8 11.8 85.9 55.3 41.3 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.3 8.2 72.0 52.6 40.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.1 9.1 9.2 71.7 50.6 41.4 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.5 9.5 9.7 97.5 61.4 43.4 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.2 11.3 12.0 80.1 52.2 41.8 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.4 14.0 9.7 95.0 60.6 43.0 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.4 10.9 13.2 85.7 54.2 45.1 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.0 9.5 9.5 84.8 56.6 41.9 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.3 9.7 100.2 62.4 44.1 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.6 11.4 9.8 89.3 58.0 41.5 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.2 10.5 10.8 79.9 53.1 40.4 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.9 11.2 10.9 86.9 56.6 41.7 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.4 10.7 86.1 57.1 46.2 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 4.1 12.2 10.8 93.9 59.3 42.6 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.9 8.9 71.3 51.6 40.1 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.8 15.4 12.4 81.4 53.0 42.8 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.6 94.8 60.5 42.9 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------