***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 2.2 1.5 1.9 -0.3 45.7 45.8 0.4 1.8 3.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 1.8 1.3 2.0 -0.1 48.7 48.4 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 4.2 3.7 2.3 -0.1 48.1 47.8 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -2.8 -0.4 -0.5 43.2 44.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.4 0.5 -0.4 44.2 44.6 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.0 -1.0 -2.8 -1.3 31.1 36.3 -0.8 0.2 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 2.1 1.7 1.9 -0.1 48.4 48.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.6 -6.2 -2.2 -0.6 41.1 43.8 -7.0 -5.3 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 2.4 1.7 0.5 -0.3 45.3 45.5 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.3 1.6 -1.2 -0.4 44.6 45.9 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.2 0.0 -0.5 42.2 43.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 1.0 -0.2 -1.3 -0.7 38.9 41.2 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.1 0.4 -1.4 -1.0 34.0 37.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 2.8 2.4 0.4 -0.1 48.8 48.6 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.5 1.2 0.7 -0.8 36.8 38.8 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.3 -0.9 -0.8 36.9 39.4 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 2.2 1.8 1.8 -0.1 48.9 48.6 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.1 -1.3 0.1 51.8 51.7 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 2.0 1.7 2.1 0.0 49.8 49.4 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.8 -3.1 -0.1 48.0 49.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 2.0 1.2 1.6 -0.4 44.2 44.5 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 1.7 1.4 2.1 0.0 50.3 49.9 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 1.5 1.4 2.0 0.1 51.4 50.9 0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 51.1 50.7 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 1.8 1.0 1.2 -0.5 43.2 43.7 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 1.7 0.6 -1.9 -0.9 37.6 40.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 2.1 1.1 1.5 -0.5 43.7 44.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 37.8 39.9 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -1.0 -2.2 0.2 52.9 53.1 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 2.3 1.9 2.2 -0.1 49.1 48.8 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------