***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.4 3.3 -0.7 33.2 37.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.3 3.2 -0.5 37.8 40.2 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.5 3.4 -0.7 34.1 37.4 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 0.6 -1.0 26.5 32.6 -0.7 0.2 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.0 1.1 -1.0 27.3 33.0 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.0 0.9 -1.5 -1.3 21.1 29.8 1.4 2.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.5 3.1 -0.6 36.9 39.7 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -4.6 -4.5 -1.2 -1.0 26.9 33.2 -4.1 -3.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.3 -0.8 29.3 34.6 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.1 3.2 -0.4 -0.9 28.6 34.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.8 0.6 -0.9 26.8 32.5 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.2 -0.4 -1.1 24.5 30.9 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.1 -0.7 -1.2 21.7 29.1 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 3.9 1.2 -0.7 34.4 37.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 3.2 3.3 1.8 -1.0 25.2 31.3 3.6 4.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 3.2 3.1 -0.1 -1.1 23.0 29.9 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.0 -0.5 37.9 40.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.3 -0.8 -0.7 33.5 37.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.3 3.2 -0.5 37.7 40.2 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.7 -0.9 29.9 36.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.6 -0.8 29.7 34.6 3.1 3.7 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 3.0 -0.5 38.8 41.1 2.8 3.4 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.9 3.0 -0.5 36.9 39.8 2.8 3.4 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.2 1.2 -0.6 34.9 38.4 3.2 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.8 3.0 2.1 -0.9 30.0 35.1 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.2 22.6 29.6 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.4 2.8 -0.8 31.7 36.2 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.4 0.7 -1.1 23.4 30.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -1.5 -0.6 35.8 39.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.3 -0.6 37.1 39.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------