***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 12.8 13.4 12.7 0.8 58.0 57.0 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 12.8 13.5 12.8 0.9 59.2 58.1 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 13.2 13.6 12.8 0.6 56.1 55.3 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 5.1 5.5 9.6 0.6 55.7 55.0 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.3 13.5 11.1 0.5 54.9 54.1 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.3 11.4 8.4 -0.2 48.5 48.7 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 12.5 13.1 12.6 0.9 58.7 57.7 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 1.8 1.3 8.9 0.0 50.1 50.1 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 13.1 13.2 12.1 0.5 54.7 53.9 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.2 12.8 10.1 0.2 51.8 51.4 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 13.2 13.1 11.4 0.3 52.8 52.2 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 12.4 11.9 9.9 0.1 50.5 50.4 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.3 12.7 10.5 0.0 49.7 49.6 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 13.6 14.0 12.4 0.8 56.8 56.0 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 12.8 13.3 12.1 0.6 56.5 55.8 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 13.7 13.5 10.6 0.2 52.3 51.9 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 11.8 12.6 12.4 1.0 59.9 58.8 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.8 12.9 9.6 0.5 54.8 54.0 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 12.9 13.6 13.0 0.9 58.9 57.9 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.0 8.3 7.6 0.7 56.9 55.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 13.2 13.4 12.7 0.5 54.8 54.0 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 13.0 13.8 12.9 1.1 60.5 59.3 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 13.4 14.0 13.1 0.9 58.1 57.2 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 13.3 13.4 11.9 0.5 54.7 54.1 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 12.7 13.2 11.6 0.7 56.6 55.8 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.8 12.2 8.9 0.0 49.6 49.7 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 12.8 13.4 12.1 0.8 58.1 57.1 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 13.2 13.3 10.6 0.4 54.3 53.8 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 7.9 8.2 9.2 0.8 57.1 56.0 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 12.7 13.3 12.8 0.9 58.5 57.5 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------