***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.7 10.5 -2.1 28.7 32.1 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.9 10.4 -2.0 29.6 33.0 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 12.9 13.2 10.5 -2.4 27.1 31.1 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.6 4.4 6.8 -3.1 21.9 27.2 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 12.8 12.6 8.2 -3.0 22.1 27.6 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.3 10.6 5.5 -3.7 17.5 24.3 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.9 10.4 -1.9 30.1 33.4 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 0.7 0.1 6.1 -3.4 19.4 26.9 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.5 9.0 -2.9 22.7 28.0 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 12.6 12.2 7.1 -3.3 20.9 27.4 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.6 12.2 8.1 -3.3 20.5 26.8 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 11.6 11.0 7.1 -3.3 19.2 26.4 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.1 7.5 -3.1 20.7 27.6 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 13.1 13.2 9.0 -2.7 25.7 31.0 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.4 8.9 -2.8 23.5 28.2 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 12.9 12.4 7.5 -3.2 20.3 26.8 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 11.7 12.2 10.2 -1.9 30.4 33.8 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 12.1 11.9 6.7 -3.0 22.5 29.3 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 12.6 13.0 10.5 -2.1 28.9 32.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.0 6.7 4.6 -2.6 23.9 32.0 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 12.9 12.9 9.9 -2.7 24.6 29.2 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 12.5 13.0 10.3 -1.9 30.1 33.7 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 13.0 13.3 10.4 -2.3 27.8 31.9 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 12.8 12.7 8.8 -2.8 24.2 29.7 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 12.8 13.0 9.0 -2.4 26.6 30.5 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 12.1 11.6 6.6 -3.0 20.7 27.7 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.1 9.9 -2.1 29.0 32.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.2 7.4 -3.2 20.9 26.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 7.0 6.8 6.1 -2.8 23.7 31.1 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.9 10.5 -2.0 29.1 32.7 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------