***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.9 13.6 -0.1 49.1 49.7 15.5 16.9 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.0 13.5 0.0 50.2 50.3 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.0 13.8 -0.2 47.7 48.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.1 10.6 -0.9 39.8 44.1 7.4 9.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.4 11.5 -0.8 41.0 44.6 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 13.5 14.5 9.0 -1.3 35.8 41.2 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.8 13.4 0.0 50.2 50.2 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.6 9.7 -1.1 38.0 42.4 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.3 12.0 -0.6 42.8 45.7 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.8 16.0 10.6 -0.9 40.4 44.1 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 14.8 16.0 11.2 -1.0 39.2 43.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.9 10.7 -1.1 37.8 42.3 14.4 16.0 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 14.8 16.0 10.0 -1.0 38.7 42.7 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.2 16.8 12.2 -0.4 46.0 47.4 15.7 17.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.4 11.4 -0.9 39.2 43.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.3 10.6 -1.0 38.5 42.8 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.2 13.3 0.0 50.4 50.4 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 14.5 16.0 10.4 -0.7 42.2 45.1 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.8 13.6 0.0 49.6 50.0 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.2 10.5 7.6 -0.7 42.1 44.5 9.6 11.2 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.7 12.9 -0.4 45.1 47.1 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.8 13.3 0.0 49.5 49.7 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.0 13.7 -0.1 48.5 49.2 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.6 12.0 -0.5 44.5 46.6 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.5 11.8 -0.3 46.1 47.7 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 14.0 15.0 9.7 -1.1 37.4 42.0 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.1 12.9 -0.1 49.2 49.6 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 14.2 15.3 10.8 -1.0 38.1 42.9 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.6 9.5 -0.7 42.4 45.1 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.9 13.5 0.0 49.8 50.1 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------