***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.0 15.1 0.4 54.9 54.1 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.3 15.0 0.5 57.0 55.5 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.5 15.3 0.3 53.8 53.2 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.2 12.6 0.1 50.6 50.7 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.6 13.2 -0.1 49.0 49.7 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.1 10.8 -0.5 44.7 46.3 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.2 15.0 0.5 56.9 55.5 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.1 11.6 -0.2 47.8 48.7 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.2 13.6 0.0 49.6 50.2 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.3 12.4 -0.1 48.9 49.6 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.3 13.0 -0.2 47.7 48.6 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.4 12.5 -0.3 47.1 47.9 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.3 11.7 -0.3 46.4 47.6 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.2 13.7 0.2 52.4 52.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.7 13.4 0.1 51.3 51.0 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.8 17.7 12.4 -0.3 47.2 48.2 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 14.9 0.6 58.1 56.2 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.8 12.1 0.0 50.4 50.8 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 15.2 0.5 56.3 55.0 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.9 9.4 0.2 52.0 51.6 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.4 14.5 0.1 51.0 51.2 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.3 15.0 0.6 57.8 55.9 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.4 15.3 0.4 54.8 53.9 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.0 13.6 0.1 51.3 51.5 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 13.4 0.2 52.9 52.7 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.6 11.5 -0.3 46.7 47.6 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.5 14.4 0.4 54.8 54.1 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.8 12.8 0.0 49.6 49.8 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.6 11.7 11.2 0.1 50.8 51.0 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 15.1 0.5 56.3 55.0 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------